In the unlike­ly event the  opti­misti­cal­ly-des­ig­nat­ed “Ces­sa­tion of Hos­til­i­ties and Relat­ed Com­mit­ments on Enhanced Secu­ri­ty Arrange­ments…”  between Israel and Lebanon ever becomes an actu­al peace treaty, the pre­am­ble should include19^th cen­tu­ry Ger­man philoso­pher  Friedrich Nietzsche’s admo­ni­tion: “Beware of all those in whom the urge to pun­ish is strong.”

 It sums up all the rel­e­vant par­ties in the Mid­dle East con­flict zone, none of whom show a scin­til­la of guilt over their actions, com­pas­sion for their unwill­ing and hap­less vic­tims, or aware­ness that fol­ly is history’s most note­wor­thy milepost.
In response to Pales­tin­ian Lib­er­a­tion Organ­i­sa­tion (PLO) attacks from Lebanon, Israel invad­ed the coun­try in 1978 and again in 1982.
Nei­ther con­flict exter­mi­nat­ed the PLO, or even put paid to its self-pro­claimed man­tle of sole legit­i­mate rep­re­sen­ta­tive of the Pales­tin­ian cause.
But the 1982 deba­cle did spur Iran­ian-inspired Islam­ic cler­ics  to cre­ate Hezbol­lah, and with Iran­ian back­ing, build it into the most  pow­er­ful non-state mil­i­tary enti­ty in  the Mid­dle East.
This despite Israel’s occu­pa­tion of south­ern Lebanon until 2000. The 2006 Lebanon War was sparked by Hezbol­lah forces attacks  on Israel.
Can any­one explain in ratio­nal (mean­ing non-mil­i­tary) terms what good the wars between Israel and Hezbol­lah have done for either side?
Hezbol­lah know­ing­ly brought down the wrath of the strongest mil­i­tary in the Mid­dle East in “sup­port” of Hamas in Gaza.
Then, in a bla­tant demon­stra­tion of tac­ti­cal self-preser­va­tion, the move­ment abro­gat­ed its stance that a cease­fire in Lebanon was con­tin­gent on end­ing the fight­ing in Gaza.
Iran, for which both mil­i­tant groups are prox­ies (read, use­ful idiots), is also on board with the new peace arrangement.
If noth­ing else, that expos­es “Islam­ic broth­er­hood” as a chimera at best.
Hezbol­lah and Iran’s lead­ers are Shi’ites, Hamas is Sun­ni. The two sects agree on Islam’s fun­da­men­tal beliefs and prac­tices, but have been at bit­ter odds for the last 14 cen­turies over who should suc­ceed the Prophet Muham­mad as leader of the faith he introduced.

                       RUBBLE AS VICTORY

In the lat­est burst of bed­lam more than 8,000 sep­a­rate Israeli attacks and its exten­sive ground oper­a­tion in south­ern Lebanon killed near­ly 3,800 peo­ple. A mil­lion ‑plus peo­ple — near­ly a quar­ter of the Mediter­ranean nation’s pop­u­la­tion – were forced to flee their homes, an esti­mat­ed 100,000 of which were destroyed.Israelis liv­ing along the Lebanese bor­der fared lit­tle bet­ter from Hezbol­lah shelling.
No one gained an inch of ter­ri­to­ry, or a bank­able pos­si­bil­i­ty of guar­an­teed future security.
Israel’s scorched-earth mil­i­tary cam­paign in Gaza has killed near­ly 45,000 Pales­tini­ans, and basi­cal­ly reduced every­thing from schools and homes to hos­pi­tals to dust and rubble.
By any mea­sure, Israel has a right to defend itself and retal­i­ate against Hamas and Hezbol­lah attacks.
But Lebanese and Gazan civil­ians don’t deserve to be vic­tims any more than their Israeli coun­ter­parts slaugh­tered and held hostage by Hamas.

                  CYNICISM THINLY DISGUISED

Instead of using it as lever­age to if not stop, then at least mean­ing­ful­ly relieve the civil­ian suf­fer­ing, the Unit­ed States has sent bil­lions of dol­lars’ worth of mil­i­tary aid to Israel since the Oct. 7, 2023  attack by Hamas.
If a “day after” plan for Gaza and Lebanon ever gets its head above the para­pet, my bet is that pledges, nev­er mind actu­al con­tri­bu­tions, won’t come even close to the amounts lav­ished on destruction.
The peace deal in Lebanon is being viewed by opti­mists as an oppor­tu­ni­ty for the gov­ern­ment, backed by the army and bol­stered by a more robust UN mon­i­tor­ing force, to reassert sov­er­eign­ty over the entire country.
The clear desire of the Lebanese peo­ple for an ordered, pros­per­ous, non-sec­tar­i­an soci­ety notwith­stand­ing, noth­ing since the civ­il war of the 1970s gives any rea­son to believe that will come to pass any time soon, if ever.
Equal­ly, trust­ing Hezbol­lah and Israel’s lead­ers to ful­ly abide by arbi­tra­tion and UN rules is illu­so­ry The basis of the peace agree­ment is UN Secu­ri­ty Coun­cil Res­o­lu­tion 1701. Passed in 2006, it called for among oth­er things, that Israel with­draw from south­ern Lebanon, the safe return of dis­placed per­sons”, and “a full ces­sa­tion of hos­til­i­ties based upon, in par­tic­u­lar, the imme­di­ate end by Hezbol­lah of all attacks and by Israel of all offen­sive mil­i­tary operations.
Good idea. Good luck mak­ing it stick.
Hezbol­lah spent untold amounts amass­ing weapon­ry and prepar­ing the Res­o­lu­tion 1701 UN-patrolled buffer zone for a new round of fighting.
Israel is still in breach of UN Res­o­lu­tion 242, passed in 1967, which calls for it to with­draw from  ter­ri­to­ry cap­tured in the war of that year, in exchange for last­ing peace.
Instead, Israeli set­tlers, encour­aged by right-wing reli­gious zealots in the Israeli cab­i­net, attack Pales­tini­ans in the West Bank with vir­tu­al impunity.
So what makes any­one think the Israeli lead­er­ship will treat 1701 any dif­fer­ent­ly if it suits them to do otherwise?
Hav­ing report­ed from Israel, Lebanon, Gaza and the West Bank, I  have great respect for the ordi­nary peo­ple there who, like all of us, just want to get on with life as best they can.
I sin­cere­ly hope the pro­po­nents of peace pre­vail. And since the nasty neigh­bour­hood in ques­tion is wide­ly known as “the Holy Land”, I hope the King James Bible ver­sion of Proverbs 11:21 holds true: “Though hand join in hand, the wicked shall not be unpun­ished: but the seed of the right­eous shall be delivered.”

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